Market Bizzz

In many ways the economic and policy realities now facing investors year hark back to the 1960s bear market for bonds, which began in the second half of that decade when a period of low inflation and unemployment came to a sudden end. As inflation accelerated through the 1970s, benchmark Treasury yields surged. They would later hit almost 16% in 1981 after then Fed Chair Paul Volcker had raised rates to 20% to tame price pressures.

Analysts expect 285,000 jobs were added last month, while unemployment hovered at 3.5%. Investors may not like a strong number if it supports a continuation of aggressive rate hikes from the Fed, which could further boost the U.S. dollar and spur a sell-off in bonds.

The dollar index made a two-decade top at 109.99 in New York trade and was last at 109.56. It is up more than 1% in the week since Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said at Jackson Hole, Wyoming that rates would need to be high “for some time” to control inflation, somewhat surprising markets.

The government has hiked the windfall profit tax on the export of diesel to Rs 13.5 per litre and on jet fuel exports to Rs 9 a litre, besides raising the levy on domestically-produced crude oil in line with the hardening of global prices.

The Fed will need to raise interest rates somewhat above 4% by early next year and then hold them there in order to bring too high inflation back down to the central bank’s goal, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester said on Wednesday.

“If one has to be in a sector, one needs to remain among the largest of the lot and rather than try and cherry pick at the bottom which are cheaper but front line companies do not offer valuation comfort and the smaller companies, unless they are working in very micro markets and have supplemented capacity, do not offer any significant upside. It is a tough market for cement.“

One interesting Ganesha stories is about going around the world 3 times as a race between his brother Karthikeya and him. While Karthikeya went around the entire world, Lord Ganesha won it by going around his parents 3 times. Like Lord Ganesha, the journey to your financial freedom is in understanding the concept of ‘your world’ and scale the uncharted territories of your personal financial well being.

“If you ask me today where Adani stocks are and should people buy them, my answer will be yes one can buy Adani Port and maybe if you have a long-term horizon, you can buy Adani Wilmar also. These are the two stocks I believe in and these are good bets even at the current levels. I would not advise buying at these levels any other Adani Group stocks.”