Dollar drifts as traders weigh rate path; yen fragile

The US dollar edged upwards by 0.049% to 102.33 on 25 June, while the yen remained fragile. Last week, a week of central bank meetings saw the Federal Reserve leave rates unchanged while suggesting that further hikes were on the horizon. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank raised interest rates and the Bank of Japan continued with its ultra-easy policy. The events mean that the market still requires convincing that the Fed will grant two more hikes this year, but investors predict there is a 72% probability of a hike by 25 basis points next month.

Gold flat on dollar strength, traders assess hawkish Fed remarks

Gold prices remained flat on Monday as the US dollar held firm and investors assessed the likelihood of interest rates increase following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone. The dollar’s strength made bullion less attractive to buyers holding other currencies. The Fed said that despite the rate remaining steady, inflation in key US industries remained high and had not shown indications of decline. Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, and while interest rate hikes reduce the cost of holding non-yielding bullion, it also raises its opportunity cost.

Oil prices come off earlier gains as banks cut China growth forecasts

Global oil prices fell on Monday due to concerns over China’s faltering post-COVID recovery, which overshadowed last week’s OPEC+ output cuts and the fall in the number of oil and gas rigs operating in the US. China will launch more stimulus to support the economy, but the measures are expected to focus on strengthening consumer and private sector demand. Refinery throughput in China was up in May to the second-highest total on record, helping to support prices. U.S. gasoline demand also rose to its highest level since December 2021. Despite the obstacles, OPEC+ output cuts and Saudi Arabia’s additional cut in July are still backing oil prices.

5 blue chips help Nifty rally; RIL, ITC among top performers

​​Reliance contributed 272 points to the Nifty rally. Indian markets closed at record highs on Friday, with the Nifty closing at 18,826 and the Sensex at 63,385. Nifty 50 is now only 63 points away from an all-time high level, whereas Sensex closed just 198 points away from the record high hit on December 1, 2022.